Hi, friends i returned to my loved net world one second after a long gap.... Hopefully I will remain active & more regular this time...
I am presenting my view on our economy this year..... We all know this year monsoon ditched us. And we will see effect of this in December or early next year... in terms of inflation in staple food.. That will be real nightmere for the govt. .. and importing food is not going to help coz, when biggest consumer of food is going out for shop price will automatically shoot up in global market as it is happening with sugar prices.
Now that's gonna effect on rural economy big way ... even subsidising food products will not help coz that will widen our fiscal deficit and will make our currency week, more inflation, less confidence of foreign money in our economy.. ( hold on, I have suggested here only effects of more fiscal deficit, situation is not gonna that worse, i hope )
So, the point is rural economy will shake up...and to some extent urban area too. Now the worst hit sector will be.... Automobile specially :- Two wheelers, Tractors, Textile, consumer durable goods, and some extent Telecoms too. To be continued.. Ravi Ranjan. rranjan27@gmail.com
1 comment:
Ravi, good analysis.
I guess we have to live with this until initiatives for major structural changes are taken. Why should we depend so heavily on Monsoon? We must certainly de-risk ourselves by reducing our over reliance to the extent possible. I am not an expert in this but inter-linking national rivers can just be an example. And I am sure there are many more. But do we have the vision and execution skills. Lot depends on what immediate gains it hold for our political leadership.
Although, still more than 65% of our population are dependent on agriculture for living, its direct impact on national GDP is not so big. But as you mentioned, demand for consumer goods will definitely take a dip. Definitely this will show in such stock performances. But that is hardly the major worry for the govt, notwithstanding the slower GDP growth. I think most important concern before the govt, would be survival of so many families. Well, I don't have data to say this, but govt. will have to come out with some relief programs, loan waiver and bail out packages.
In spite of saying all this, what is the probability that this will not be repeated next year?
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