Friday, May 21, 2010
NIFTY LONG TERM BEARISH…………
Yes, rightly said by NTT in his book we human tend overestimate our skill, especially in the matter of judgment. Crisis of Greece has been started to affecting our equity market badly. Now in my view Nifty or any Asian market is going to underperform in the long term. The solid reason is, though our underline economy is strong, but at the end of the day demand of our asset class determines their price. And demand not only comes through domestic side, but in the globalized world money chases cheaper assets. The debacle in euro has created many opportunities to smart money, whether in short term speculation or long term investments in the Eurozone. The calculation is simple in euro zone all are weak but not Germany and France. Smart money has spotted the opportunity to invest in their asset class, because now they are cheaper due to huge depreciation of euro. Hot money is working there in two ways in speculation & investments both. Hence we are watching the pull out of FII's money from Indian market. Simply because now they are more risk averse, looking for better opportunity (Read Euro zone) and debacle in china's economy is about to happen. The asset bubble that Chinese has created is in matter of time of will bust whether suddenly or slowly. Long term bear market is set, definitely for about a year. rranjan27@gmail.com
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Friday, May 7, 2010
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Loook at the king of currency
Now the confirmation...... nothing is superior then green buck.... Euro debacle helped dollar a lot....
One eyed man is really a King !!! rranjan27@gmail.com
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Alternative asset investment
Investment Analysis:-
Types of real property investments-----
- Raw Land
- Apartments
- Office Buildings
- Warehouses
- Community Shopping Centre
- Hotels & Motel
Raw Land
Appreciation is a function of demand and supply. We know while total supply of raw land is limited, but supply of urban land can be increased via addition of roads and utility services to otherwise underdeveloped raw land. Proximity to road and travel pattern directly related to value of the land.
It is passive investment, it does not provide cash flows to land holder & also do not provide depreciation for the tax purpose. Speculator invests in raw land in hopes of short term capital gain. Developer invests for long term operating need for projects.
Apartments'
Value determinants are population growth, location, convenience, & prestige of the locality we call it posh area.
Apartment returns are highly leveraged loan to income ratio may be upto 90%. Apartment provides tax depreciation.
In the start up phase of apartment construction there may be significant risk, because future demand can never be known with certainty.
Apartment investments are attractive to whom, who can afford large initial equity outlay. Investors who desire tax shelter are especially attracted to residential rental property investment.
To be continued………….
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